Composite Score
🟠 high
Consider limiting non-essential travel. Top up fuel and supplies.
Layer Model Score
Background noise
Structural pressure
Fuel · power · food · currency
Load shedding
Food price inflation
Trigger event
Political · service delivery
Unrest news / verified events / calendar flashpoint
Social coordination
WhatsApp · TikTok · Facebook
Inactive
Logistics disruption
N3/N2 · port · trucks · taxis
Inactive
Weather risk
Rain · flood · saturated ground
Inactive
N3 Corridor
JHB–Durban freight
✓ CLEAR
N2 Corridor
South Coast route
✓ CLEAR
Durban Port
Import/export hub
✓ CLEAR
Taxi Networks
SANTACO / NTA
✓ CLEAR
Minimal
Drizzle
Additive Scoring
Interpretation
0–3 → Background noise
4–6 → Watch closely
7–9 → High risk
10+ → Something is about to break
The pattern most people miss:
Crises don't fail because signals weren't there — they fail because signals were dismissed individually instead of combined.